Geno Smith is a Fantasy Steal
What everyone's missing about Las Vegas under Carroll and Kelly
A Silver Mine in Silver and Black
Geno Smith isn’t flashy or trending. And for most fantasy managers, he’s barely even draftable. But that might be exactly why he deserves your attention.
There’s value in him being overlooked, and Geno is being dismissed because of two things: age and brand. He’s 34, has bounced between teams, and is now inheriting what most assume is a stale Raiders offense. But if we ignore the noise, Geno could be turning into a huge fantasy opportunity.
The projection of his season by our AI model speaks for itself. Nothing too flashy — a steady 17 fantasy points per game — but with a ceiling that pushes 20 in our bull case. That’s a strong position, nearing a top-ten quarterback, which is being overlooked by the rest of your league.
Most projections expect the Raiders to lean run-heavy under Carroll and Kelly — and they aren’t wrong. But that doesn’t hurt Geno’s outlook. The new Vegas system isn’t about volume — it’s about clarity, tempo, and letting playmakers create yards after the catch.
New Brains in Las Vegas
Pete Carroll and Geno Smith famously gelled well in Seattle. Carroll trusted Geno to lead an offense built on play-action timing and discipline. Now reunited in Las Vegas, the chemistry is back — but under a completely new system.
This is down to Chip Kelly, the Raiders' new offensive coordinator. Unlike Shane Waldron’s methodical structure in Seattle, Kelly’s scheme is fast-paced, horizontal, and aggressive. It’s designed to stretch defenses sideline to sideline, not just vertically. This puts pressure on defenders and forces quick decisions from quarterbacks.
The question we’re asking is whether Geno can handle it, and the signs point to yes. He’s played tempo-heavy systems before (most notably at West Virginia) and his strong numbers in 2022 behind a mediocre Seattle O-line indicate his ability to thrive under pressure. Geno’s late-game accuracy and pocket movement have improved with age; this stamina and conditioning will be indispensable in Kelly’s system.
The transition to achieving his fantasy potential won’t be instant. But if the Raiders offense clicks, Geno could thrive in a way that isn’t being priced into his ADP at all.
Weapons Built for Tempo
Slot Threat: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers might not be a WR1 in name, but in Kelly’s offense, he could be one in impact. His ability to operate both inside and outside makes him a versatile option. Meyers will likely thrive on quick-hitting routes, zone-beating option plays, and spacing concepts that create leverage for others to succeed. He’s also a reliable deep route technician when called upon, which adds another layer to Geno’s intermediate game.
Sophomore Star: Brock Bowers
Bowers is the most exciting tight end prospect to enter the league in years. He can line up anywhere — inline, slot, out wide — and execute. His versatility is a huge asset in a system built around pace and misdirection.
However, his fantasy value may not align with his in-game impact. Tight ends in Chip Kelly’s offense have often been used to stretch the field vertically or pull coverage away from primary reads. That means Bowers may open things up for others more often than he finishes drives himself. When we also consider the statistical trend for tight ends facing coaching changes, it casts a looming shadow over expectations. Not to a significant extent, but enough to reconsider his draft position.
But importantly, from a Geno value perspective, Bowers makes the offense harder to defend. He’s a great tool that’s going to boost Geno’s ceiling.
Checkdown Threat: Ashton Jeanty
There’s a lot of hype around Jeanty, and while I’m cautious about his ability to perform against an NFL side, his skill set fits what Kelly wants: lateral quickness, pass-catching ability, and acceleration in space.
Jeanty isn’t going to be a workhorse, but Kelly is certainly going to make use of him. If Geno is reading quickly and the defense is pulled wide, Jeanty could rack up sneaky-high target counts with designed swing passes and checkdowns. Think 3–5 receptions a game with room to break one.
Improved Protection — Just Enough
The Raiders’ O-line isn’t elite, but it’s better than what Geno had in Seattle. The right side remains a concern, but that’s where coaching and scheme come into play.
Expect Bowers to be used strategically to chip edge rushers, motion into blocking help, and draw attention away from protection gaps. The important thing is that Kelly isn’t going to leave Geno exposed. Geno will be getting enough time to enact Kelly’s vision.
The AI Projection
We had our AI model analyse Geno’s performance trends, system fit, supporting cast, and the broader fantasy consensus to generate a balanced projection for the 2025 season. It projects a stat line of 4,200 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, with a modest boost from 180 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores. That places him on the high end of the teens in fantasy points per game in 4-point passing TD formats — giving him respectable QB2 status, with clear weekly upside.
There is a strong indication of value being missed in plain sight.
Short Squeeze on Geno
Fantasy managers are shorting Geno Smith. But he’s more than just a begrudging final pick when nobody is left. He’s stepping into a fast-paced, intelligently constructed offense that plays to his strengths, and the strengths of the Raiders’ offensive cast.
He’s not a QB1. But he could be a QB15 with QB10 upside — and that makes him one of the best profit opportunities in your draft.
See you next week, where we’ll be doing a deep dive on what the best strategy is when it comes to rookies in the fantasy draft.
— Valentino